State guarantees to counteract the financial effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on industrial supply chains

As the recent COVID-19 pandemic has clearly demonstrated, appropriate state support policies are crucial for supporting industrial supply chains during crises to prevent viable businesses from defaulting. In this context, this study proposes a hybrid credit risk model to appropriately size public interventions for viable (worthy) businesses through systematic risk assessment during a period of turmoil. This study discusses the effects of the credit crunch-based economic downturn and proposes a methodology to assist policymakers in managing limited public resources to effectively support industrial supply chains. The proposed approach initially focuses on the dynamics of credit risk during economic recession periods, identifying the conditions that may justify a public intervention strategy based on public guarantees. Subsequently, a hybrid credit risk model is developed to appropriately size public interventions by quantifying systematic risk. Finally, a numerical application is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.