The assessment of EU photovoltaic trend by using PCA and DEA techniques

Aim of this work is, firstly, to produce a synthetic indicator able to identify the main factors that allowed the Photovoltaic (“PV” since now) diffusion from 1996 (PV wide diffusion starting date) to 2010, in 14 selected countries (on the basis of the best performance at EU level, showed by the time series considered) and, secondly, we want to evaluate the technical efficiency of these countries in terms of efficient resources utilization and cost efficiency. For this scope a two steps analysis is performed. In the first step, by using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique, we will identify specific weights of the variables considered for each year, and the roles (in terms of weight) played, by each of them, yearly. In the second step, by using a DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) model, we will calculate the efficiency scores of 14 EU Member States (EU codes: AT, BE, BG, CZ, DK, FI, FR, DE, EL, IT, NL, ES, SE, and UK). In the first step, we will consider a set of 20 indicators concerning the diffusion of PV, from those concerning the usual electricity demand level/sources, to specific indicators concerning the solar irradiation intensity, modules costs, PV market growth and government financial support schemes. Expected results of the work are, firstly, a detailed analysis able to explain the evolution trend in 14 EU countries (the best performers in the EU PV sector); second, the production of a synthetic indicator able to identify the main variables that allowed the PV diffusion during the years considered; third, a detailed overview on EU solar energy supporting schemes implemented by the 14 EU countries; finally, using the scores of efficiency, the production of a useful tool to be used to measure the attractiveness of PV investments within each EU country considered. Moreover, our work foresees the achievement of important socio-economic impacts: from the role played by the PV sector to produce new job opportunities, to the improvement of attractiveness of Foreigner Direct Investments above all in those sunrich EU countries. Strictly connected to this last point, is the discussion concerning the role of convergence regions (and structural funds available for them) and the related strategic use of structural funds towards the PV’s goals. As a consequence of the heavy worldwide economic crisis, several EU countries are implementing spending review procedures; in this context we put our work, by informing policy makers about the economic potential of PV deployment as well as the government funding schemes role. A final consideration concerns the need to work towards a graduated match between PV labour demand and PV labour supply that, actually, results far to be reached: secondary schools and Universities are invited to play an active role in bridging the gap. Finally, the results reached with this work will fit with 2 of 7 EU 2020 flagships: from one hand, with the flagship an “Agenda for new skills and jobs” by equipping people with the right skills for the jobs of today and tomorrow and, from the other hand, with the flagship “Resource Efficient Europe”.