From Vulnerability to Resilience: A Portfolio-Based Model of Hotel Room Revenue under Weather Shocks

In tourism, climate-related risk governance has become essential, as changing weather patterns disrupt demand and revenue stability. Resilience represents a central pillar of adaptive strategies, involving actions that enable destinations to absorb and recover from climate shocks. Effective governance in hospitality must therefore integrate sustainability practices, stakeholder engagement, and quantitative climate-risk assessments to support preparedness and operational continuity. To address this need, this study introduces a quantitative framework that measures resilience in the hospitality sector using hotel performance data (RevPAR) and meteorological variables. Adapting the Markowitz mean–variance portfolio theory, the method constructs indicators of vulnerability and resilience that capture expected performance and volatility under climate stress.