A leverage point perspective for policymaking for circular transition - A case study of the Icelandic building industry

Achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals requires systemic transformation through policy reforms that enable a socio-technical transition. This study examines the Icelandic building industry, a sector of significant environmental impact that has recently published a roadmap for sustainable development. Through a case study, the research evaluates the roadmap´s transformative potential through stakeholder-driven policy formulation. The study compares the transformative potential of the roadmap's interventions with those formulated using Meadows' (1999) leverage-point framework during the agenda-setting phase (TLP framework). Its findings show that the roadmap interventions do not sufficiently address the deep leverage points required for industry-wide transition. In contrast, applying the TLP framework during agenda-setting enhances the transformative potential of proposed interventions, supporting a shift toward a circular economy. This study contributes to transition studies by applying the multi-level perspective and circular economy lens to reveal the lack of transformative policies in Iceland's building industry roadmap. It demonstrates how the TLP framework can assess policy documents, inform agenda-setting, and enhance the transformative potential of interventions. The findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers in Iceland, including developing a shared circular economy vision, shifting business attitudes, and embedding circular principles into design, infrastructure, planning, and professional training. The findings may extend beyond the Icelandic context, requiring further research to test transferability.