Balancing Efficacy and Tolerability of First-Line Systemic Therapies for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Network Meta-Analysis

Background: Atezolizumab+Bevacizumab represents the current standard of care for first-line treatment of advanced HCC. However, direct comparison with other combination treatments including immune-checkpoint inhibitors(ICI)+tyrosine-kinase inhibitors(TKIs) are lacking. Objectives: This network meta-analysis(NMA) aims to indirectly compare the efficacy and the safety of first-line systemic therapies for unresectable-advanced HCC. Method:A literature search of MEDLINE, EMBASE and SCOPUS databases was conducted up to 31st October, 2022. Phase III randomized controlled trials(RCTs) testing TKIs, including Sorafenib and Lenvatinib, or ICIs reporting overall survival(OS) and progression-free survival(PFS) were included. Individual survival data were extracted from OS and PFS curves to calculate restricted mean survival time (RMST). A Bayesian NMA was performed to compare treatments in terms of efficacy(15- and 30-month OS, 6-month PFS) and safety, represented by grade = 3(severe)adverse events(SAEs). The incremental safety-effectiveness ratio(ISER) as measure of net health benefit was calculated as the difference in SAEs probability divided by survival difference between the 2 most effective treatments. Results:Nine RCTs enrolling 6600 patients were included. Atezolizumab plus bevacizumab showed the highest probability(88%)of achieving the 30-month OS landmark. Lenvatinib showed a probability of 86% of achieving best PFS outcomes. ICI monotherapies ranked as most tolerable. Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab showed the best net health benefit for OS, compared to Durvalumab plus Tremelimumab. When evaluating the net health benefit for PFS, at a willingness-to-risk threshold of 10% of SAEs for life-month gained, Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab was favored in 78% of cases, while at threshold of 30% of SAEs for life-month gained, Lenvatinib was favored in 76% of cases. Conclusions: Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab is the best treatment in terms of net benefit and therefore it should be recommended as standard of care. Compared to Atezolizumab plus Bevacizumab, Lenvatinib monotherapy had the best net benefit for PFS when physicians and patients are available to accept a higher risk of toxicity.