Effects of the Italian financial crisis on the photovoltaic dissemination in a southern city

The aim of this paper is to estimate how the profitability of grid-connected PV (photovoltaic) systems may vary month by month due to the changes in all parameters involved in the economic evaluation (discount rate, PV electricity selling price, inflation rate, price of PV devices etc.). The effects of these variations were investigated for a district of a city in the South Italy (Palermo). The results of the analysis provided the trend of the actual coverage of the district power demand from June 2010 to August 2012. In particular the load match index, which considers the daily energy demand covered by PV systems, ranged from almost 30% to less than 12%, which is less than the value of 17% of the final energy consumption in 2020 from renewable energy sources that Italy is obliged to ensure by the European Union Directive 2009/28/EC. Finally, a sensitivity analysis related to shading and mismatch factors was carried out. If 10% of the solar energy had been shadowed, the load match index would have reduced of 70%. Similarly, if only 40% of electrical production had been used, the load match index would have lowered to an almost null value in January 2012.