Seasonality of tourism demand in Italy through the “trips and holidays” survey: influencing factors and implications for destination sustainability

This study reviews the literature on tourism seasonality with a specific focus on the factors influencing the temporal allocation of travel demand, rather than on its aggregate effects. To our knowledge, only a limited number of contributions explicitly analyse the determinants of seasonality in trips and tourism demand. Using microdata from the ISTAT “Trips and Holidays” survey (2018–2024), the study combines descriptive analyses, logit models and a mediation-based structural equation model. Results confirm a stable and highly concentrated summer seasonality in Italy and show that socio demographic characteristics, together with transport and accommodation choices, significantly affect the probability of traveling in high season, as well as trip duration and expenditure. Understanding these factors is crucial for tourism marketing and for managing destination sustainability, as the negative effects of seasonality represent one of the main constraints on the environmental, economic and social sustainability of destinations