Risk-Aware Crude Oil Scheduling in Petrochemical Supply Chains: A CVaR-Driven Reactive GRASP Simheuristic

The scheduling of crude oil operations in marine refineries is a complex combinatorial problem, exacerbated by stochastic disruptions like vessel delays and port congestion. Traditional deterministic and expected-value approaches fail to mitigate high-impact tail events, causing severe demurrage and production bottlenecks. To address this, we propose a novel CVaR-Driven Reactive GRASP Simheuristic. This framework hybridizes GRASP with Monte Carlo simulation, embedding Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) into the adaptive memory to actively steer the search away from catastrophic logistical gridlocks. Overcoming standard “unlimited port capacity” assumptions, the model endogenously calculates demurrage dynamics and introduces an automated Failure Taxonomy for explainable insights. Evaluated on a 30-day industrial case study, representing a standard short-term operational scheduling horizon, under baseline conditions and severe dynamic disruptions (vessel delays, unit maintenance), the diagnostic reveals that over 80% of scheduling failures stem from endogenous port congestion rather than internal dead-ends. Furthermore, a comprehensive ablation study mathematically validates the superiority of the CVaR-driven memory over standard expected-cost optimization in preventing catastrophic tail-risk scenarios. Results demonstrate that this CVaR-driven approach effectively absorbs stochastic shocks, prevents stockouts, and minimizes worst-case costs, generating highly robust schedules in under three minutes. Ultimately, it provides a robust, risk-aware Decision Support System (DSS) for supply chain and operations managers.