Assessing the Impact of HVDC Interconnections on Transmission Networks with High Renewable Penetration: The Sicilian Case of the TUN-ITA and Tyrrhenian Link

This paper investigates the impact of renewable energy source (RES) integration on the Sicilian transmission network, considering the commissioning of new Mediterranean interconnections, namely the TUN-ITA and the Tyrrhenian Link. The expansion of transmission infrastructures and the increasing penetration of RES require an assessment of the Sicilian power system’s capability to accommodate high levels of power injection. This study was carried out in collaboration with the Italian transmission system operator Terna S.p.A. and the University of Palermo. It aims to evaluate the evolution of transmission line loading under future RES integration scenarios consistent with grid connection requests submitted to Terna and with national energy policy targets. The proposed methodology integrates micro-zonal assessments of wind and solar potential, estimation of capacity factors, development of RES capacity expansion scenarios, and steady-state power flow simulations. The simulations were performed using WinCreso® software version 7.69 for three time horizons: 2028, 2029, and 2035. The results show the most congested transmission lines and the network areas most exposed to congestion. The analysis provides operational insights for prioritizing grid reinforcement measures and proposes a replicable methodological framework for other transmission system operators facing similar RES integration challenges.