The Role of Facial Emotion Recognition and Jumping to Conclusions in Subclinical Psychosis: Cross‐Sectional and Longitudinal Findings

Facial emotion recognition (FER) and the jumping to conclusions (JTC) biases are well-documented in psychotic disorders and have been proposed as an intermediate phenotype for the disorder. However, their relationship with subclinical psychotic features and their longitudinal course remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association of FER and the JTC with psychosis vulnerability in a sample of healthy individuals, with an eight-year follow-up in a subgroup to assess long-term changes. A total of 100 healthy participants were recruited at baseline. FER and JTC were assessed at baseline using the Degraded Facial Affect Recognition (DFAR) task and the Beads task. Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) and schizotypal traits were measured at baseline and follow-up using the Community Assessment of Psychic Experiences (CAPE) and the Structured Interview for Schizotypy-Revised (SIS-R), respectively. Longitudinal analyses were conducted in a subgroup of 17 participants after 8 years. At baseline, poorer FER and the presence of JTC were associated with a higher SIS-R positive score. Longitudinal analyses showed that baseline JTC and DFAR anger and fear were associated with an increase in negative PLEs and schizotypal traits over time. These findings support the role of facial negative emotion recognition deficits and the JTC as a potential endophenotypic marker for psychosis vulnerability. The results highlight the importance of metacognition and social cognition impairments in the development and persistence of schizotypal traits. Future research should investigate the neurobiological and environmental mechanisms underlying these associations to inform early intervention strategies.