Le sorprese positive dai territori

The chapter highlights the unexpected demographic vitality and territorial heterogeneity observed in population dynamics, distribution of foreign residents, and longevity patterns. These findings contrast with broader national demographic concerns, highlighting localized divergences from expected trends. In an aging Italy with declining birth rates, some territories defy negative trends thanks to migratory and social dynamics that bring new life. While the overall Italian population has essentially halted its growth and fertility remains low, the Emilia-Romagna region have experienced significant and beneficial population dynamism, both Italian and foreign citizens, with substantial inflows and outflows. The region stands out for its ability to attract young people and students, creating a virtuous cycle that reduces aging and keeps the population active. Similarly, the age distribution of the population at the local level also reveals specificities that highlight ’positive surprises’ within a predominantly pessimistic narrative of demographic dynamics. While it is undeniable that Italy is a rapidly and intensely aging country, posing challenges for the healthcare, pension, and social assistance systems, it is also true that the country is characterized by exceptional levels of longevity. Sardinia has known as one the blue zones with exceptional longevity but also in Sicily there are groups of municipalities, which seem to hold the secrets to a long and healthy life and could make this region included in the list of areas with high longevity in the future. The chapter also debunks myths about the settlement models of the foreign population. Observing the geographical distribution of the population by citizenship reveals a country characterized by a relatively smaller foreign presence as one moves from North to South. But immigrants are not only concentrated in large cities and sometimes significantly contribute to balancing local demographic decline. These ‘demographic surprises’ demonstrate how crucial it is to look beyond national averages and analyse phenomena at the sub-national and, in particular, at the local level, providing valuable insights for more effective and targeted territorial policies. This is particularly true (and significant) in Italy because, unlike other EU countries, it has a highly complex orographic and geomorphological landscape and deeply rooted local identities and spatial disparities. A careful look at the local heterogeneity can highlight geographical peculiarities that may not be visible in a large-scale overall view. Therefore, the chapter urges and pushes into a ‘local thinking’ approach in demographic studies and contributes to the design of effective and targeted municipal policies.

Il capitolo mostra come nonostante il quadro nazionale sembri dominato da preoccupazioni demografiche, alcune aree del Paese presentano segni di vitalità inaspettata. In un’Italia che invecchia e vede calare la natalità, emergono territori che sfidano le tendenze negative, grazie a dinamiche migratorie e sociali che infondono nuova linfa. L’Emilia-Romagna, ad esempio, si distingue per la capacità di attrarre giovani e studenti, creando un circolo virtuoso che riduce l’invecchiamento e mantiene la popolazione attiva. Allo stesso modo, il capitolo mette in luce come in Sardegna e Sicilia esistano gruppi di comuni con longevità eccezionale, le cui comunità sembrano nascondere i segreti di una vita lunga e sana. Anche sulla distribuzione territoriale della popolazione straniera vengono sfatate alcune narrazioni dominanti: gli immigrati non si concentrano solo nelle grandi città e talvolta contribuiscono in maniera significativa a bilanciare il declino demografico locale. Queste "sorprese demografiche" dimostrano quanto sia cruciale guardare oltre le medie nazionali e analizzare i fenomeni a livello locale e/o sub-locale, fornendo indicazioni preziose per politiche territoriali più efficaci e mirate. Una lettura che sfida il pessimismo e invita a ripensare il futuro demografico dell’Italia.