COAST-PROSIM: A Model for Predicting Shoreline Evolution and Assessing the Impacts of Coastal Defence Structures

Coastal zones, at the interface between land and sea, face increasing challenges from erosion, sea-level rise, and anthropogenic interventions, necessitating innovative tools for effective management and protection. This study introduces COAST-PROSIM, a novel numerical model specifically designed to predict shoreline evolution and assess the impacts of coastal defence structures on coastal morphology. Unlike existing models that often face a trade-off between computational efficiency and physical accuracy, COAST-PROSIM balances these demands by integrating two-dimensional wave propagation routines with advanced shoreline evolution equations. The model evaluates the effects of interventions such as breakwaters and groynes, enabling simulations of shoreline dynamics with reduced computational effort. By using high-resolution input data, COAST-PROSIM captures the interplay between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and structural impacts. Tested on real-world case studies along the coasts of San Leone, Porto Empedocle, and Villafranca Tirrena, the model demonstrates its adaptability to diverse coastal environments. The results highlight its potential as a reliable tool for sustainable coastal management, allowing stakeholders to anticipate long-term changes in coastal morphology and design targeted mitigation strategies.