Planning precision aquaculture activities in a changing and crowded sea

Extreme climate events are increasingly challenging the growth of the marine aquaculture sector, causing local influences on species performance and affecting production and yield - impacting where to locate cage aquaculture facilities. Here we produced scenario-based quantitative maps using modelled species-specific performance combined with predicted high-resolution future IPCC temperature scenarios. We ran a species-specific Dynamic Energy Budget mechanistic model for four model species, up to 2050, and mapped functional traitbased outcomes as: i) time to reach the commercial size, ii) feces produced and iii) uneaten food. A high spatial resolution suitability index allowed the sustainability of farming strategies for single- and multi-species to be identified across a 159.696 km2 surface extension (Italian Exclusive Economic Zone; 6% of the Mediterranean basin surface). Providing a good case study to shed light on difficult questions facing aquaculture planning around the world. Good future performance under both representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios were modelled for Sea bream and European seabass in inshore waters. Performance of Mediterranean mussels and Japanese oysters was found to decrease slightly when compared to the 2007-2010 time interval. Scenariobased quantitative maps represent a heterogeneous species-specific knowledge layer that is critical to better inform aquaculture management and development strategies. Yet this knowledge layer is missing from the process to develop climate-resilient risk maps and associated adaptation measures, as well as when informing stakeholders on potential site expansion and/or the establishment of nascent aquaculture industry sites.