A three-gene signature marks the time to locoregional recurrence in luminal-like breast cancer

Background: Gene expression profiling (GEP)-based prognostic signatures are being rapidly integrated into clinical decision making for systemic management of breast cancer patients. However, GEP remains relatively underdeveloped for locoregional risk assessment. Yet, locoregional recurrence (LRR), especially early after surgery, is associated with poor survival. Patients and methods: GEP was carried out on two independent luminal-like breast cancer cohorts of patients developing early (≤5 years after surgery) or late (>5 years) LRR and used, by a training and testing approach, to build a gene signature able to intercept women at risk of developing early LRR. The GEP data of two in silico datasets and of a third independent cohort were used to explore its prognostic value. Results: Analysis of the first two cohorts led to the identification of three genes, CSTB, CCDC91 and ITGB1, whose expression, derived by principal component analysis, generated a three-gene signature significantly associated with early LRR in both cohorts (P value <0.001 and 0.005, respectively), overcoming the discriminatory capability of age, hormone receptor status and therapy. Remarkably, the integration of the signature with these clinical variables led to an area under the curve of 0.878 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.810-0.945]. In in silico datasets we found that the three-gene signature retained its association, showing higher values in the early relapsed patients. Moreover, in the third additional cohort, the signature significantly associated with relapse-free survival (hazard ratio 1.56, 95% CI 1.04-2.35). Conclusions: Our three-gene signature represents a new exploitable tool to aid treatment choice in patients with luminal-like breast cancer at risk of developing early recurrence.