Hepatobiliary phase hypointensity predicts progression to hepatocellular carcinoma for intermediate-high risk observations, but not time to progression

Purpose: To determine whether hepatobiliary phase hypointensity, enhancing “capsule” and size provide prognostic information regarding the risk of progression to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), as well as the time to progression, of intermediate to high risk observations ≥ 10 mm with arterial phase hyperenhancement (APHE). Method: This retrospective dual-institution study included 160 LR-3 and 26 LR-4 observations measuring more than 10 mm and having APHE in 136 patients (mean age [SD], 57 [11] years old). A composite reference standard of pathologic analysis and imaging follow-up was used. The prognostic performance of hepatobiliary phase hypointensity, enhancing “capsule” and size (cut-off: 20 mm) for the prediction of probability of progression to HCC and median time to progression to HCC was assessed and compared by means of Log-rank test, Cox-regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: 110 (59%) of 186 of observations progressed to HCC, 29.1% (32) progressed within 6 months, 60% (66) within 1 year and 84.5% (93) within 2 years. Hepatobiliary phase hypointensity was a significant predictor of progression to HCC (p < 0.0001, odds ratio: 20.62) but not of time to progression (p = 0.17). Median time to progression to HCC was 284 days [IQR: 266–363] and was shorter – though not significantly - for observations with enhancing “capsule” (118 days vs 301 days; p = 0.19). Conclusions: Hepatobiliary phase hypointensity is an independent predictor of progression to HCC in intermediate to high risk APHE observations ≥ 10 mm.