A GIS-based methodology for evaluating the increase in multimodal transport between bicycle and rail transport systems. A case study in Palermo

Background: In a world where every municipality is pursuing the goals of more sustainable mobility, bicycle plays a fundamental role in getting rid of private cars and travelling by an eco-friendly mode of transport. Also, private and shared bikes can be used as a feeder transit system, solving the problem of the first and last-mile trips. Thanks to GIS (Geographic Information System) software, it is possible to evaluate the effectiveness of such a sustainable mean of transport in the future users’ modal choice. Methods: Running an accessibility analysis of cycling and rail transport services, the potential mobility demand attracted by these services and the possible multimodality between bicycle and rail transport systems can be assessed. Moreover, thanks to a modal choice model calibrated for high school students, it could be verified if students will be really motivated to adopt this solution for their home-to-school trips. Results: The GIS-based analysis showed that almost half of the active population in the study area might potentially abandon the use of their private car in favour of bike and its combination with public transport systems; furthermore, the percentage of the students of one high school of Palermo, the Einstein High School, sharply increases from 1.5% up to 10.1%, thanks also to the combination with the rail transport service. Conclusions: The GIS-based methodology shows that multimodal transport can be an effective way to pursue a more sustainable mobility in cities and efficiently connect suburbs with low-frequent public transport services to the main public transport nodes.