In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.
TORNATORE E, BUCCELLATO M S (2008). Multi-Phase epidemic model by a Markov chain. PHYSICA. A, 387, 3555-3562 [10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.115].
Multi-Phase epidemic model by a Markov chain
TORNATORE, Elisabetta;
2008-01-01
Abstract
In this paper we propose a continuous-time Markov chain to describe the spread of an infective and non-mortal disease into a community numerically limited and subjected to an external infection. We make a numerical simulation that shows tendencies for recurring epidemic outbreaks and for fade-out or extinction of the infection.
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