No-till durum wheat yield success probability in semi arid climate: A methodological framework

The aim of this study is to develop a framework for the evaluation of no-till (NT) yield success probability as a decision tool for farmers or decision makers. The effect of soil management on durum wheat yield has been tested on many long-term field experiments. Results of these researches were collected in a unique dataset to evaluate the success of NT management in comparison to conventional tillage (CT) as influenced by the aridity index, crop residue management and cropping system. A total of 519 observations of long-term experiments (>3years) regarding durum wheat in a number of areas with semi arid climate were included in the present study. The relative ratio of yield under NT and CT was correlated to the aridity index (Ai) for different cropping systems and residue management strategies. No-till performed better with lower values of the Ai. When NT and CT yields were the same, the Ai value was defined as the Ai threshold, and this value resulted as being strongly dependent upon crop management. The developed framework, in any given site, allows us (i) to know the threshold for different managements tecniques, (ii) to estimate the probability of success in adopting NT and CT soil management techniques; (iii) to predict the best management with reference to Ai variation.