Possibilities of growth of a candidate to European Union: The case of Romania

In this paper the socio-economic situation and perspectives of growth of Romania will be discussed. Romania is one of the “second wave” East European countries candidate to enter the EU in 2007. Romania’s position, apparently similar to those of the other candidates, is however quite peculiar. In spite of some positive signals (growth, exports, FDI, productive international networks), it deeply suffers from internal socio-economic inequalities, obsolete industries, scarce technological progress, weak public administration, lacking infrastructure. Moreover, concerns arise – as repeatedly stressed by European Union Commission – with regard to the safeguard of human rights. Nowadays trade liberalization and policies directed to convert the productive system are ongoing in this country with the main objective of fulfilling the EU acquis. In this “race”, however, strength aspects and fragility elements of the context play a fundamental role in influencing the result of major changes that are taking place in Romania. On one side the country benefits from a position in international production system that could be a stimulus to endogenous growth processes, on the other, however, serious internal obstacles still remain strong. Following a trace highlighted by the recent literature on the effects of trade liberalization, the author will examine Romania’s case to identify main factors that could contribute to a stable path of growth and those that constitute an obstacles to growth and internal convergence. The analysis developed here constitutes a first step of a critical review of such a complex case that, as a matter of fact, is different from those of other CEECs that have entered the UE, even dissimilar from Bulgaria’s position.