Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel

Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine taxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions can have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and single-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the effect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop - ulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR) and modelled the probability of skipping reproduction as a function of oceanographic variables using CMR models. We demonstrate that a decrease in sea surface temperature in the pre-breeding period negatively influences skipping propensity, and therefore hypothesize that this behaviour would have significant influence on population abundance over time. For this reason, we analysed population growth as a function of skipping probability as affected by oceanographic conditions. We used stochastic demographic models to forecast the fate of the population, and evaluated contrasted environmental condition scenarios. As a result, we found that a decrease in frequency of cold winter events would probably reduce skipping propensity, with a positive effect on the population as a whole.