Identifying spatial and temporal changes in forest connectivity in Sicily (1990–2018) for conservation actions

Sicily, a Mediterranean biodiversity hotspot facing increasing anthropogenic pressures, offers an interesting context for evaluating forest connectivity as an indicator of ecosystem health and resilience. This study analyses changes in forest connectivity between 1990 and 2018 to identify degraded areas, zones requiring enhanced protection, and potential targets for reforestation. Using Corine Land Cover datasets and connectivity modelling based on circuit theory (Omniscape), we assessed spatial and quantitative variations in forest connectivity across the region. Statistical comparisons between 1990 and 2018 scenarios revealed a general improvement in connectivity in several key areas—such as the Nebrodi Mountains—largely due to reforestation efforts in the 1990s and the expansion of the Natura 2000 network. Conversely, certain zones exhibited marked decreases or local concentration (“bottleneck” and canalization effects) of connectivity flux, primarily driven by land-use changes, highlighting areas in need of targeted protection measures. Integrating connectivity metrics into spatial and conservation planning provides a practical framework for identifying vulnerable landscapes and prioritizing restoration interventions. These findings are particularly relevant in the context of Italy’s National Forest Strategy and the EU Nature Restoration Law, which both emphasize ecological connectivity as a cornerstone for achieving resilient and functional forest ecosystems in the Mediterranean region.