Analysis, Diagnosis, Prevention And Mitigation Of Dropout Among Rural Undergraduate Students In Colombia.

Dropout in higher education has been a widely studied phenomenon, with a consensus on its potential to prevent the transfer of the personal and social benefits of higher education. In this context, it is recognised that rural student dropout in higher education has not been widely analysed, neither by states nor by the academic community. Hence, the Colombian case is not an exception to this reality, where public policies have made efforts to prevent and mitigate it by seeking to facilitate access to education through funding, as well as to strengthen and develop the skills of rural students that should have been acquired at previous academic levels. Despite this, dropout levels remain high, and with the effects of COVID-19 are expected to increase. Furthermore, this generates indications that there are explanatory variables and causes that have not been addressed by the State and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) for the correct treatment of this educational phenomenon.Thus, the objective of this thesis was to establish which strategies in the framework of Colombian public policies should be implemented by the State and HEIs for the analysis, diagnosis, prevention, and mitigation of dropout in students located in or coming from rural areas enrolled in undergraduate programmes, through the development of models. A mixed methodology, incorporating both qualitative and quantitative methods, was proposed for the fulfilment of this objective. The study began with a documentary review to contextualise public policies on access to higher education, as well as those on retention and timely graduation. Subsequently, a model based on system dynamics was developed with the aim of understanding the economic effects of dropout on the actors at the educational level. With this framework, we proceeded to identify other explanatory variables influencing dropout in the rural student population through a systematic review of the literature and cluster modelling. Subsequently, a systems thinking model was developed based on the narratives of rural students who intended to drop out or had dropped out. Finally, a model based on dynamic performance management was developed to simulate the effects of intervention regarding public policy for the prevention and mitigation of dropout rates in rural higher education.The thesis presented here developed a first comprehensive analysis of dropout in rural higher education in Colombia, framing new perspectives for the development and complementation of existing public policies, based on the identification of the explanatory variables and causes that lead students to end their training process early. In general terms, advances were made in the field of knowledge regarding the study of public policies, simulation modelling applied to the field of education, the characterisation of students who drop out and those who intend to drop out, as well as those who intend to remain, and, finally, the establishment of the causes of dropout in the student population under study.