In the first part of this paper, recalling a general discussion on iterated conditioning given by de Finetti in the appendix of his book, vol. 2, we give a representation of a conditional random quantity $X|HK$ as $(X|H)|K$. In this way, we obtain the classical formula $\pr{(XH|K)} =\pr{(X|HK)P(H|K)}$, by simply using linearity of prevision. Then, we consider the notion of general conditional prevision $\pr(X|Y)$, where $X$ and $Y$ are two random quantities, introduced in 1990 in a paper by Lad and Dickey. After recalling the case where $Y$ is an event, we consider the case of discrete finite random quantities and we make some critical comments and examples. We give a notion of coherence for such more general conditional prevision assessments; then, we obtain a strong generalized compound prevision theorem. We study the coherence of a general conditional prevision assessment $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ has no negative values and when $Y$ has no positive values. Finally, we give some results on coherence of $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ assumes both positive and negative values. In order to illustrate critical aspects and remarks we examine several examples.

Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G. (2009). On general conditional random quantities. In ISIPTA'09: proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications (pp.51-60). Durham : SIPTA.

On general conditional random quantities

SANFILIPPO, Giuseppe
2009-01-01

Abstract

In the first part of this paper, recalling a general discussion on iterated conditioning given by de Finetti in the appendix of his book, vol. 2, we give a representation of a conditional random quantity $X|HK$ as $(X|H)|K$. In this way, we obtain the classical formula $\pr{(XH|K)} =\pr{(X|HK)P(H|K)}$, by simply using linearity of prevision. Then, we consider the notion of general conditional prevision $\pr(X|Y)$, where $X$ and $Y$ are two random quantities, introduced in 1990 in a paper by Lad and Dickey. After recalling the case where $Y$ is an event, we consider the case of discrete finite random quantities and we make some critical comments and examples. We give a notion of coherence for such more general conditional prevision assessments; then, we obtain a strong generalized compound prevision theorem. We study the coherence of a general conditional prevision assessment $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ has no negative values and when $Y$ has no positive values. Finally, we give some results on coherence of $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ assumes both positive and negative values. In order to illustrate critical aspects and remarks we examine several examples.
14-lug-2009
ISIPTA: International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications
Durham (UK)
14-18 July 2009
6
2009
10
http://www.sipta.org/isipta09/proceedings/031.html
Peer reviewed paper; Conference Proceedings Citation Index- Science (CPCI-S) - Web of Science databes
Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G. (2009). On general conditional random quantities. In ISIPTA'09: proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications (pp.51-60). Durham : SIPTA.
Proceedings (atti dei congressi)
Biazzo, V; Gilio, A; Sanfilippo, G
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10447/47606
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