In the first part of this paper, recalling a general discussion on iterated conditioning given by de Finetti in the appendix of his book, vol. 2, we give a representation of a conditional random quantity $X|HK$ as $(X|H)|K$. In this way, we obtain the classical formula $\pr{(XH|K)} =\pr{(X|HK)P(H|K)}$, by simply using linearity of prevision. Then, we consider the notion of general conditional prevision $\pr(X|Y)$, where $X$ and $Y$ are two random quantities, introduced in 1990 in a paper by Lad and Dickey. After recalling the case where $Y$ is an event, we consider the case of discrete finite random quantities and we make some critical comments and examples. We give a notion of coherence for such more general conditional prevision assessments; then, we obtain a strong generalized compound prevision theorem. We study the coherence of a general conditional prevision assessment $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ has no negative values and when $Y$ has no positive values. Finally, we give some results on coherence of $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ assumes both positive and negative values. In order to illustrate critical aspects and remarks we examine several examples.

Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G. (2009). On general conditional random quantities. In ISIPTA'09: proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications (pp.51-60). Durham : SIPTA.

On general conditional random quantities

SANFILIPPO, Giuseppe
2009-01-01

Abstract

In the first part of this paper, recalling a general discussion on iterated conditioning given by de Finetti in the appendix of his book, vol. 2, we give a representation of a conditional random quantity $X|HK$ as $(X|H)|K$. In this way, we obtain the classical formula $\pr{(XH|K)} =\pr{(X|HK)P(H|K)}$, by simply using linearity of prevision. Then, we consider the notion of general conditional prevision $\pr(X|Y)$, where $X$ and $Y$ are two random quantities, introduced in 1990 in a paper by Lad and Dickey. After recalling the case where $Y$ is an event, we consider the case of discrete finite random quantities and we make some critical comments and examples. We give a notion of coherence for such more general conditional prevision assessments; then, we obtain a strong generalized compound prevision theorem. We study the coherence of a general conditional prevision assessment $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ has no negative values and when $Y$ has no positive values. Finally, we give some results on coherence of $\pr(X|Y)$ when $Y$ assumes both positive and negative values. In order to illustrate critical aspects and remarks we examine several examples.
Settore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica Matematica
14-lug-2009
ISIPTA: International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications
Durham (UK)
14-18 July 2009
6
2009
10
http://www.sipta.org/isipta09/proceedings/031.html
Peer reviewed paper; Conference Proceedings Citation Index- Science (CPCI-S) - Web of Science databes
Biazzo, V., Gilio, A., Sanfilippo, G. (2009). On general conditional random quantities. In ISIPTA'09: proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: theories and applications (pp.51-60). Durham : SIPTA.
Proceedings (atti dei congressi)
Biazzo, V; Gilio, A; Sanfilippo, G
File in questo prodotto:
File Dimensione Formato  
BGS-ISIPTA09.pdf

Solo gestori archvio

Descrizione: Articolo per intero
Dimensione 202.14 kB
Formato Adobe PDF
202.14 kB Adobe PDF   Visualizza/Apri   Richiedi una copia

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/10447/47606
Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 2
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 1
social impact