Aridity index, soil erosion and climate drive no-till ecosystem services trade-off in Mediterranean arable land

Despite the relevant literature on the advantages of no-till (NT) management, the world area under NT is only 10% of the arable land, probably due to several limiting factors as climate, soil types, farming systems and yield. Soil conservation practices and particularly NT soil management are able to provide many ecosystem services (ESs). This paper suggests a framework to determine the area distribution of soil erosion control and food security ESs trade-offs furnished by NT, starting from the potential soil erosion and aridity index maps. The interaction between the potential soil erosion and the aridity index showed that different trade-offs and synergies of multiple ESs may occur and need to be interpreted. The yield success probability of NT with respect to CT (P(NT)) and soil erosion tolerance (SET) were considered to determine four classes of the NT adaptability index, which represent the NT ability to support multiple ESs, under the environmental condition. For 2020 as a baseline, and 2050 as a future scenario, in between latitudes 35◦ and 47◦, an analysis was carried out, focusing on the arable lands of five European Mediterranean countries (France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain), which are potentially cropped with durum wheat. Results showed that, for the considered arable land area, under NT soil management and from a food security point of view, the potential durum wheat area, under climate change pressure, slightly increases, if residues are retained. On the contrary, if residues are removed, the potential durum wheat area is very limited for both the baseline and the 2050 scenario. The area distribution corresponding to the NT adaptability index classes could be suitable for stakeholders to modulate payments for agri-environmental measures, based on the actual provided ESs.